Minnesota cannabis market outlook
Every number on this page is either verified OCM data or a clearly labeled model with its method shown. Source: Minnesota OCM Cannabis Market Monitor, extracted 2026-09-01 and verified 2026-09-03.
Verified so far in 2026
H1 2026 combined sales
$136.0M
Latest month (Jul 2026)
$27.5M
Latest month-over-month change
+4.6%
Sales Trend
Monthly cannabis sales (Adult-Use vs Medical)
Official monthly sales currently run through Jul 2026. No later months are substituted with estimates.
Run-rate model
Modeled, not officialAverage month-over-month growth in total sales over the last three verified months (4.7%) is applied forward to project the next three months; a flat scenario repeating the latest verified month is shown alongside for a range.
| Month | Run-rate model | Flat scenario |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | $28.8M | $27.5M |
| Aug 2026 | $30.2M | $27.5M |
| Sep 2026 | $31.6M | $27.5M |
Method and limits: this model is based on only six months of verified data, does not account for seasonality (which is unknown this early in the market), does not model new store openings, and OCM routinely revises prior months after initial publication. Treat both scenarios as a rough range, not a prediction.
OCM study estimate vs actual
Figures from OCM's 2025 Cannabis Market Size Study, shown as the study's own estimates. These are not MNCH predictions or targets.
OCM 2025 Cannabis Market Size Study, Year 1 estimate
$350.0M
H1 2026 combined sales (verified)
$136.0M
Percent of Year 1 study estimate
38.9%
| Study period | Total market estimate | Adult-use estimate | Medical estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Year 2 (2026-2027) | $750.0M | $625.0M | $125.0M |
| Year 3 (2027-2028) | $1.10B | $975.0M | $125.0M |
| Year 5 (2029-2030) | $1.50B | $1.38B | $125.0M |
How to use and cite this data
Charts should be read with their displayed period, unit, and update date. OCM sales and licensing data can be revised after initial publication. MN Cannabis Hub preserves verified monthly history, labels unavailable values instead of estimating them, and separates issued licenses from confirmed open storefronts. When citing a figure, include the month and source shown beside it.
- Minnesota OCM Cannabis Market Monitor
Official monthly sales, product, cultivation, and market measures.
Checked September 7, 2026
- Minnesota OCM business licenses
Official counts by license type. A license is not automatically an open storefront.
Checked September 7, 2026
- State of the Market reports
Monthly analysis that connects official figures with openings, legislation, and market context.
Checked September 7, 2026
- Editorial and corrections policy
Our sourcing hierarchy, corrections process, and treatment of estimates.
Checked September 7, 2026
Related research
- Which number is right?
Why Minnesota cannabis sales and license figures differ between OCM sources, with the date and definition of each.
- Minnesota vs neighbors
How Minnesota compares with Illinois, Michigan and Wisconsin on cannabis taxes and access, from each state’s official sources, with lessons from Colorado and Oregon.